Tag Archives: Atletico Madrid

Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews

14 Dec

bruno

Sporting Gijon v Villarreal: 12:00 – Live on Sky Sports 5

They scored a lovely free-kick with the last kick of the game, but Sporting ultimately lost 2-1 away to Espanyol last weekend to show that their defeat of Osasuna was largely because the Pamplona-based side are the worst team in the Spanish top-flight.

The Yellow Submarines of Villarreal, on the other hand, stunningly destroyed Atletico Madrid 3-0 at El Madrigal in the Monday night fixture. It’s important to say that Atletico played very poorly, but what a result for Villarreal!

With regards to this weekend’s fixture, Villarreal have only won one league away game this season – defeating Malaga 2-0 at La Rosaleda – with four games drawn and two lost, so it’s only prudent to have the draw onside, at least for cover.

Sadly, at a 4/7 price, Villarreal draw no bet is too short priced to be my pick, while you can’t back Sporting + 0.5 since they’ve lost five or their last six competitive games and lie second bottom in the La Liga Primera standings.

Goals wise, Sporting’s last six games have seen three or more goals in each, with one being in the cup, but only three of Villarreal’s last six competitive contests have passed the same mark.

So, not an ideal mix for goals on both sides, but over 2 goal line is the best I can come up with at a 1.75 price if you want a bet.

Recommendation: Over 2 goal line (3/4)

Simeone2

Atletico Madrid v Las Palmas: Not televised in the UK

Shockingly, Diego Simeone’s Los Colchoneros were beaten 3-0 away to Villarreal last weekend, which makes them sixth in the La Liga Primera standings. Worse still, Atleti’s goalkeeper, Oblak, was injured in the game and will be out of action for 3-4 months.

Las Palmas, for their part, drew 1-1 at home to Leganes last weekend, leading for 75 minutes before conceding a penalty. In all competitions, it was their third score draw in a row.

In conclusion, either the away team on a handicap start basis or over goals look like the best options to choose from as Atleti are not in great form, their second-choice keeper, Moya, is nowhere near as good as Oblak and Las Palmas tend to score and concede in every game.

However, the handicap is Las Palmas + 1.5 at evens, and I was excepting/hoping for + 2, while over 2.5 goals is a too short to back 8/13. Both teams to score, on the other hand, is priced at 11/10.

The problem is that in Atleti’s last six competitive games, both teams haven’t scored once! Specifically at the Vicente Calderon, mind, both teams have scored in 3/6 with Rostov, Malaga and Granada all getting on the scoresheet.

Las Palmas have scored and conceded away to Valencia, Villarreal, Real Sociedad and Sevilla, whilst they did the same at home to Real Madrid, so I’ll take a leap of faith with BTTS.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (11/10)

images (1)

Granada v Real Sociedad: 17:30 – Live on Sky Sports 5

They benefitted from two ruled out Malaga goals and really should have lost on the balance of play, but Granada drew 1-1 away to the Anchovies to make it three competitive games without defeat.

The, apart from losing 5-1 away to Deportivo, in-form Real Sociedad got back to winning ways by defeating relegation-threatened Valencia 3-2 at San Sebastian last weekend.

In conclusion, after defeating Sevilla 2-1 to earn their first league win of the season, Granada have form and confidence on their side. It’s largely the same for Real Sociedad too, but that 5-1 defeat at the Riazor, coupled with both teams having scored in five of the last six competitive games each has played, makes goals look like the best option.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (5/6)

duda

Sevilla v Malaga: 19:45 – Live on Sky Sports 5

Very impressively with second-half sub Vicente Iborra scoring a hat-trick, Sevilla defeated Celta 3-0 in Vigo last weekend and currently occupy third place in the La Liga standings.

Malaga, meanwhile, had two goals ruled out – one in injury time – and can consider themselves very unlucky not to have beaten Granada at La Rosaleda last weekend.

All in all, I want to recommend a home win as Sevilla have won every league game they’ve played at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan besides against Barca, but Sevilla’s 1/2 price doesn’t give enough respect to Malaga.

Instead, with five of the last six Malaga La Liga games seeing both teams score and the same mark applying to Sevilla’s recent league exploits, BTTS and Sevilla to win looks like the best bet as BTTS is only priced around 8/11 as a single and over 2.5 goals is 7/10 at best.

Recommendation: Sevilla to win and both teams to score (21/10)

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Villarreal v Atletico Madrid – Betting Preview

11 Dec

Simeone2

Villarreal v Atletico Madrid: 19:45 – Live on Sky Sports 2

In a sleep-inducing contest, Villarreal drew 0-0 away to Leganes in their last La Liga game, while days later they defeated a poor Steua Bucharest side 2-1 at home in the Europa League. This victory was their first in five competitive games.

Atletico, meanwhile, couldn’t do any better than taking a share of the spoils after a 0-0 draw at home to an Espanyol side in good form last Sunday. Midweek, it got worse for Simeone’s Los Colchoneros as they lost 1-0 away to Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League.

All in all, neither team is in good enough form to trust and while they could play from memory and grind out a 0-0 or 1-0 win like they’ve done in the past in this fixture, recent results like Villarreal 0 Alaves 2 make it hard to put my faith in backing the Yellow Submarines on a + 0.5 Asian handicap basis, especially with Griezmann in town.

Given that the last six head-to-head meetings between Villarreal and Atletico have seen less than three goals in each, and in the expectancy of a tight, hard fought game, under 2.5 goals was what I had in mind, but at 4/7 it’s not worth the risk, so no bet.

From experience, when the under goals are too short priced to back, a half-time draw sometimes pays dividends in this sort of game in La Liga, but then it really would be guessing for the sake of it and I don’t want to do that.

Apologies that I can’t give you a solid betting pick in this game, but good luck if you have a bet, thanks for reading and check back for a preview of Friday’s game between Alaves and Real Betis.

Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews – Round 31

31 Mar

Atletico v Betis

After losing 2-1 away to Sporting Gijon last time out, Simeone’s Atleti have pretty much conceded their La Liga title hopes for the season and will have one eye on their upcoming Champions league match with Barca at Camp Nou.

So, Atleti can take it easy v Betis in La Liga, while Barca can hardly do the same at home to Real Madrid in the Clasico. Los Colchoneros will also miss their regular centre-back pairing of Godin and Gimenez.

Betis + 1.5 handicap start then? Maybe, but so long as he starts the match (check before you bet) the easiest trend to follow is Griezmann anytime scorer as the Frenchman has netted in five straight La Liga games.

Recommendation: Griezmann anytime scorer at 4/5

GnevValencia

Las Palmas v Valencia

Gary Neville’s ill-fated spell as Valencia coach was brought to an end midweek, and Pako Ayestaran takes the reins until the end of the season (in theory). Now, while Rafa Benitez’s old assistant had already been back with Los Che in his old role for a few weeks, he’s still a new coach and, as such, I wouldn’t bet against him and his team.

The bad news for Pako on his debit is that Las Palmas are in good form, defeating both Villarreal and Real Sociedad away and only losing tight home games to Barcelona and Real Madrid in their last six fixtures on the island.

In conclusion, the angles are opposing Las Palmas or accounting for their good form and perhaps an increased effort from the Che players with GNev gone, BTTS (4/5). For my money, it’s a no bet.

Suarez

Barcelona v Real Madrid

Ok, on current from, Barcelona should beat Real Madrid and they likely will, but Los Blancos will be out for revenge after their 4-0 home loss in the last Clasico and 8/13 isn’t an appealing price for the Catalan side.

Now, the long BTTS streak (18+ in a row) was broken in the last Clasico and although it should, in theory, be harder for Real Madrid to score at Camp Nou than at the Bernabeu, I have a feeling that Zidane’s boys will get on the scoresheet.

As such, and particularly since I lost a max bet on over 2.5 goals & BTTS as one bet in the last Clasico, over 2.5 goals & BTTS as one bet is what I’d like to bet on, looking for revenge, but it’s a mere 8/13 price-wise, so forget that.

In conclusion, a Barca win and both teams to score is a bet I expect to win, but its 6/4 price is shorter than expected and I’ve also opted for over 3.5 match goals – at a fairer price – as a slight preference.

Recommendation: Over 3.5 goals at 9/10

Worth a punt: Barca win & BTTS at 6/4

Nolito

Celta v Deportivo

The Galician derby and one that would have been a lot easier to pick had Deportivo not won their first game of 2016 last time out! Indeed, winning 2-0 away to Valencia last weekend and picking up other impressive wins along the way, Celta are in great form.

So, it’s great form vs could be starting a winning streak now and, as such, a no bet, a brave Depor + 0.5, BTTS or over 2.5 goals are the choices.

I’m not brave enough to take the Depor + 0.5, and since Celta have kept a few clean sheets recently, will chance my luck on over 2.5 goals.

Worth a punt: Over 2.5 goals at 1.85

Round 25 La Liga Betting Previews

18 Feb

manucho

Valladolid v Levante

In their round 24 fixture, Valladolid (2.15) lost 3-0 away to Atletico Madrid. Of course, this result wasn’t a surprise, and there really isn’t much to say about it. Valladolid remain in 18th position.

Levante (4.0), through a second half David Barral goal, defeated Almeria 1-0 at home last weekend. The Valencia based side have now risen to 8th place in the La Liga standings – level on points with Valencia themselves.

In conclusion, although Levante are currently situated just outside of the UEFA cup qualifying places, their seasonal objective is to avoid relegation, mainly by wining home games. Valladolid, of course, have the same objective, but they desperately need the points and, in theory, should be favoured to win this tie.

However, despite needs must for the home side, they’ve only won three games on their own patch this season and a 2.15 price does not interest me.

For what it’s worth, Valladolid have beaten Levante at home in each of the last two seasons, while this does sound like the type of game that will be level at half time (2.05) – a bet Real Madrid TV man Phil Kitromilides often likes to take.

Lastly, this game sounds like under 2.5 goals (1.58) on paper, but the price is so short about that you may as well have a small bet on over at 2.38 instead!

No bet here, though! Good luck if you opt to wager.

Elche

Real Madrid v Elche

With Jese, Benzema and Modric on the scoresheet, Real Madrid (1.09) easily defeated Getafe 3-0 at the Alfonso Perez last weekend. Los Blancos remain level with Atletico and Barcelona on 60 points at the top of the table.

Elche (34.0) drew 0-0 at home to Osasuna in round 24’s Friday evening fixture. It wasn’t as boring as the scoreline suggests, but there’s little to write about bar a missed Elche pen.

In conclusion, Ronaldo and Modric miss out through suspension, but Real should have no problems putting Elche to bed, and they’ll want to do it quickly with a UEFA Champions league trip to Schalke on the horizon.

Sadly, Real Madrid to score before 30 minutes is too short to back at 1.5, while over 1.5 first half goals is only 1.7, but Ancelotti’s boys have very consistent in winning to nil at the Bernabeu, and Elche don’t offer much of a threat going forward, so we’ll take that.

After all, although Real Madrid should win 3 or 4-0 against Elche, we know that Los Blancos are happy to win 1 or 2-0 against teams like Granada and Osasuna when they’ve had fixture pileups in the past – and neither of those two games saw two goals in the first half. All in all, to win to nil is better value compared to over 1.5 first half goals.

Recommendation: Real Madrid to win to nil (1.8)

Charles

Celta Vigo v Getafe

I’m sure you’ve all heard about the tear gas canister that was thrown onto Villarreal’s El Madrigal pitch with Celta (1.85) leading 1-0 and a few minutes to play last weekend, so I’ll just say well done to Enrique and charges for eventually winning 2-0. Celta now reside in a respectable 11th position.

Getafe (5.2), who will likely dispense of their coach, Luis Garcia, soon if results don’t improve, lost 3-0 at home to Real Madrid last weekend – a result that leaves them just four points above the relegation places.

In conclusion, Celta are in great form, winning three and drawing one of their last four fixtures, while Getafe have lost three out of their last four and haven’t even won a game in 2014.

I’m not sure that their price is right at 1.85, but I can’t see a sensible choice other than a Celta win here. Indeed, if the pre-mentioned Garcia is soon to be sacked, then really we should oppose the Azulones until he is.

Recommendation: Celta (1.85)

Prieto

Real Sociedad v Barcelona

La Real took an early lead through Carlos Vela and rode their luck at times, but ultimately won 1-0 away to Malaga in the round 24 Monday evening fixture. Sixth placed Real Sociedad (8.5) are now level on points with fifth placed Villarreal and four behind fourth placed Athletic Bilbao.

Barcelona (1.4), as expected, put Rayo to the sword last weekend, winning 6-0. Messi scored a brace and is now level with Raul on the all-time La Liga scorers list. Neymar, back from injury, added the sixth and final goal after stunning run and finish.

In conclusion, much like their inept, overly defensive Champions League campaign, La Real stood off and admired Barca last time these two met at San Sebastian in the Copa del Rey a week and a half ago, and they really should have lost about 4-1, but the Basque’s, through a Griezmann goal, drew 1-1.

Now, I’d like to back Barca on a minus handicap because they were vastly superior to La Real in the cup tie mentioned above and didn’t actually have to win that game since they had a 2-0 lead from the first leg, but then Barca played Man City in Manchester in the UEFA Champions League midweek and San Sebastian has not been a happy hunting ground for the Catalans in recent years, with two losses and two draws from their last four trips there.

Indeed, Real Sociedad twice covered their Asian handicap mark in both cup ties with Barca, so why not again when the Catalans have played an extra game midweek?

Recommendation: Real Sociedad + 1.5 Asian handicap (1.91)

duda

Almeria v Malaga

Almeria (2.5) lost 1-0 away to Levante last weekend, a week after they’d beaten Atletico Madrid at home! Almeria are in 15th place in the standings, four points off the drop zone.

Malaga (3.0), despite dominating the second half, struggled to create clear cut chances at home to Real Sociedad, losing 1-0 at La Rosaleda in the Monday night fixture. Schuster’s boys are now in 17th position, three points 18th placed Valladolid.

In conclusion, Almeria will want at least a point to remain above Malaga, while Malaga really need to win. I would suggest that Malaga are the better team, so we’ll give them the nod with a handicap start.

Recommendation: Malaga + 0.25 Asian handicap (1.78)

Rayo Vallecano v Sevilla

Rayo (3.5) were destroyed 6-0 by Barca at Camp Nou last weekend, but we knew that their wide-open style of football was always going to lead to a similar scoreline.

In a game which goals were expected, Sevilla (2.25) drew 0-0 at home to Valencia in round 24. Rakitic – who has failed to convert as many as he’s scored from the spot this season – even missed a penalty. Emery’s boy’s also had a one man advantage for a large part of the second half.

As for this weekend’s game, well, Rayo were impressive in thrashing Malaga 4-1 in their last home game, while Sevilla lost 3-2 to Malaga in their last road game and have only won one game in 2014.

Now, Sevilla have had to play an extra game in the Europa league midweek and Rayo drew with Sevilla at Vallecas last season, so we could give Rayo a + 0.5 handicap start at 1.75, but five out of the last six clashes between these two have seen three goals or more and with BTTS too short at 1.6, I opt for over 2.5 goals instead.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.73)

Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao

Not surprisingly, and despite having a one man advantage in the final ten minutes, bottom club Betis (3.13) lost 1-0 away to Granada in the noon Sunday kick-off slot last weekend.

Athletic (2.4), surprisingly, lost their unbeaten La Liga record at the new San Mames after a Sergio Garcia inspired Espanyol won 2-1 in round 24.

Now, Betis did beat Athletic here in the cup earlier this season, but the Basques spurned a plethora of chances, before easily winning the second leg in Bilbao.

Also, with Betis – albeit at home – having played Rubin Kazan in the Europa League on Thursday evening, I’ve got to give Athletic the nod on a draw no bet (the same thing as 0 Asian handicap) basis.

Finally, although fifth placed Villarreal also lost weekend, sixth placed Real Sociedad won to draw level with Villarreal on points, so an Athletic side with a bad taste in the mouth after last week’s defeat will surely see a game against Betis as one they have to win.

Recommendation: Athletic 0 Asian handicap (1.78)

Valencia v Granada

Los Che’s improved form continued as they managed to draw 0-0 away to Sevilla in round 24 – a result that kept them in 7th place. Valencia (1.5) were even reduced to ten men in the second half, so big credit to them for getting a point,

In a pitifully dire game, Granada (7.5) defeated Betis 1-0 in the noon Sunday fixture last weekend. Granada are now in 12th position, six points clear of the relegation places.

In conclusion, I want to back Valencia -1 AH here, but Los Che have played the extra game midweek when they faced Dynamo Kiev, so it’s made me think twice.

However, we should still expect an in-form Valencia that has beaten Granada five times in a row to win once more, so I’ll risk a possible push with the minus one.

Finally, I have a feeling that under 2.5 goals (2.1) will be a winner in this game, as Granada only lost 2-0 to Real Madrid at the Bernabeu recently, some of Valencia’s players will be tired from the Europa League and this fixture has been contained less than three goals in four out of five head to head matches.

Recommendation: Valencia – 1 Asian handicap (1.83)

Osasuna v Atletico Madrid

In a half decent contest, Osasuna (8.0) drew 0-0 away to Elche last Friday evening. With this draw, Osasuna remain above Elche in 13th place with 26 points.

Atletico (1.5), through Garcia, Costa and Godin goals, easily defeated Valladolid 3-0 at the Vicente Calderon in their round 23 fixture. Atletico are still level on points with Barcelona and Real Madrid at the top of the table.

In conclusion, I believe that there are two suitable betting angles for this match:

Firstly, Atletico had to play AC in Milan midweek, and a league away game at Osasuna just a few days later is one of the worst fixtures Los Colchoneros could have been dealt.

Indeed, Osasuna held both Real Madrid and Barcelona to draws in Pamplona earlier this season, so why not an Atletico side that has played an extra game midweek?

Betting wise, as Atleti would be perfectly happy to win 1-0 in such a scenario, Osasuna + 1.25 Asian handicap looks like it could be the bet at 184.

The other finalist in the bet selection process is under 2.5 goals at a 1.91 price. Now, Osasuna generally struggle to score goals, while Atletico don’t concede many or often win big on the road. As mentioned above, Atletico – like they did away to Malaga after their last UEFA Champions League game – will take a 1-0 win.

I like both angles, but under 2.5 gets the nod because of Ateti’s defence and need to win if they are to remain in the title race. I wouldn’t however, blame you for backing the other option, or indeed both!

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals (1.91)

bruno

Espanyol v Villarreal

Somewhat surprisingly, Espanyol (2.7) dealt Athletic Bilbao their first ever La Liga loss at the new San Mames stadium last weekend, with Sergio Garcia and Diego Colotto each netting in the 2-1 victory.

Villarreal (2.88), meanwhile, lost 2-0 at home to Celta Vigo – a shocking result in most punters eyes. The Yellow Submarines remain in fifth place, four points behind Athletic Bilbao.

In conclusion, Espanyol’s seasonal objective is always just to avoid being relegated – and they’re currently 11 points clear of 18th placed Valladolid – while Villarreal are chasing a European place – in particular a Champions League slot.

Now, Villarreal will expect fourth placed Athletic Bilbao to at least draw away to Betis and, as such, Marcelino’s charges will need to do the same or better in order to keep pace with the Basques.

Recommendation: Villarreal + 0.25 Asian handicap (1.8)