Tag Archives: Betis

Alaves v Real Betis – Betting Preview

12 Dec

castro5

Alaves v Real Betis: 19:45 – Friday – Live on Sky Sports 5

Basque side Alaves drew 0-0 away to Eibar in their last La Liga fixture and are now unbeaten in three league games – four if you include their 3-0 away win at Gimnastic in the Copa del Rey.

Betis, meanwhile, defeated Athletic Bilbao 1-0 in Seville via a Ruben Castro goal last Sunday and can claim to be three games unbeaten, including a 1-0 home defeat of Deporitvo La Coruna in the cup.

All in all, Betis are now playing well and with passion, so there’s a temptation to back the Andalusian team on a + 0.25 Asian handicap basis, but then they were beaten 3-1 away to Eibar in their last away game, and Alaves have just drawn the same fixture.

So, both teams are in decent form and since only two of the last six Alaves league games have seen both teams score, along with 2/6 for Betis, you can’t trust each team to score a goal. Nor can you trust over 2.5 goals with 1/6 Alaves game passing that mark and 2/6 Betis.

How about under 2.5 goals or BTTS No, then? Well, under 2.5 goals is priced at a too short 4/7 and BTTS No is priced around 7/10 to 8/11. If I had to choose, I’d recommend that you back BTTS NO since it’s the more acceptably priced of the two, but it’s a little too short for my liking (5/6 would be ok) and I’ve decided no bet.

Good luck if you take the plunge, though, and check back for Saturday’s La Liga previews.

Sunday’s La Liga Betting Previews

9 Dec

eibar

Eibar v Alaves: 12:00 – live on Sky Sports Interactive

Just like last season, Eibar were beaten 3-1 away to Basque rivals Athletic in their most recent La Liga fixture, while Alaves drew 1-1 at home to Las Palmas.

Statistically, with only one loss and defeats of teams like Valencia, Villarreal and Real Sociedad, Eibar are currently the sixth best home team in La Liga. Alaves, meanwhile, have managed to defeat Barcelona and Villarreal on their travels, along with drawing against Atletico, and are the fifth best away side in Spain’s top flight.

So, while I feel like I should me making the obvious pick of an Eibar win this weekend, the away side – who’ve won their last three road games in all competitions – have pulled off enough upsets to put me off and make me feel like I have to have the draw onside.

If you can’t choose the match winner it’s always worth looking at goals, and four of Eibar’s last six goals have resulted in both teams scoring, with 4/6 passing the over 2.5 goals mark.

Decent stats, then, but sadly only two of Alaves’ last six games have seen both teams score, with the same mark for over goals. Just not enough to chance an overs or BTTS bet unless you buy into the theory that playing Eibar = goals.

So, all in all, I can’t make a firm recommendation in this game, but you’re now armed with information and I wish you good luck if you opt to have a bet.

apas

Celta Vigo v Sevilla: 15:15 – live on Sky Sports 3

With the red-hot Iago Aspas bagging a brace, Celta drew 3-3 away to Betis in their last game, while Sevilla continued their awful away form in La Liga by losing 2-1 away to Granada to give their hosts a first league win of the season.

Of course, Sevilla played in the UEFA Champions League midweek, drawing 0-0 away to Lyon, and although they rested a few players, enough of their regulars played to mix tired legs into the equation.

Notably, Celta have won their last five home league matches, but conceded in them all. Now, both teams have scored in Sevilla’s last six away La Liga games, plus four of the last six head-to-head contests between the two, so you’d expect this weekend’s tie to follow suit.

Sadly, however, BTTS Yes is priced around 4/7 and too short for a single bet. You could instead back over 2.5 goals and BTTS as one bet at even money (2.0) and I certainly wouldn’t talk you out of that, but the safest and simplest play seems to be backing Celta on a draw no bet basis at home to a team who’ve played an extra game midweek and won something like (at a guess) three of their last twenty-seven away league games.

Recommendation: Celta draw no bet (10/11)

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Espanyol v Sporting Gijon: 17:30 – live on Sky Sports 3

Defence-minded Espanyol ground out a 0-0 draw away to Atletico Madrid last weekend, meaning that they’re now undefeated in eight league games and nine if we add the cup.

Last weekend was a landmark for Sporting too as they won their first league game since September when defeating hapless Osasuna 3-1 in Gijon.

All in all, I feel I should be making the simple pick of Espanyol to defeat Sporting, but the visitors have a good record away to their hosts, losing only one of their last five visits and 8/11 is not a great price for the Barcelona-based team.

Instead, and since Espanyol tend to reserve 0-0’s for when they play bigger teams, coupled with the fact that Sporting’s last five competitive games have seen three goals or more, the home team to score two or more is my pick.

Recommendation: Over 1.5 Espanyol team goals (evens)

castro5

Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao: 19:45 – live on Sky Sports 1

In a thrilling game, Betis drew 3-3 at home to Celta last Sunday to make it one win, one loss and a draw in three league games since their new coach took over.

Athletic, on the other hand, defeated fellow Basque’s Eibar 3-1 at the new San Mames, which they followed up with a 1-1 draw away to Rapid Vienna in the Europa League a few days later.

All in all, I’d have recommended Athletic + 0.5 in previous seasons, but this time they’ve played an extra game midweek and are far looser at the back then they used to be.

Betis, as mentioned, haven’t shown any consistency recently, so I’m just not confident enough to make a pick in the match winner or handicap markets.

It could well be a BTTS game and if anything, that or over 2.5 goals is what I’d chance as both teams have scored in five of Athletic’s last six competitive games with four seeing three or more goals, but it’s only a 2/6 for Betis in both markets, so I’m not confident enough to bet on either market.

Anyway, thanks for reading and hopefully my thoughts prove to be useful.

Round 25 La Liga Betting Previews

18 Feb

manucho

Valladolid v Levante

In their round 24 fixture, Valladolid (2.15) lost 3-0 away to Atletico Madrid. Of course, this result wasn’t a surprise, and there really isn’t much to say about it. Valladolid remain in 18th position.

Levante (4.0), through a second half David Barral goal, defeated Almeria 1-0 at home last weekend. The Valencia based side have now risen to 8th place in the La Liga standings – level on points with Valencia themselves.

In conclusion, although Levante are currently situated just outside of the UEFA cup qualifying places, their seasonal objective is to avoid relegation, mainly by wining home games. Valladolid, of course, have the same objective, but they desperately need the points and, in theory, should be favoured to win this tie.

However, despite needs must for the home side, they’ve only won three games on their own patch this season and a 2.15 price does not interest me.

For what it’s worth, Valladolid have beaten Levante at home in each of the last two seasons, while this does sound like the type of game that will be level at half time (2.05) – a bet Real Madrid TV man Phil Kitromilides often likes to take.

Lastly, this game sounds like under 2.5 goals (1.58) on paper, but the price is so short about that you may as well have a small bet on over at 2.38 instead!

No bet here, though! Good luck if you opt to wager.

Elche

Real Madrid v Elche

With Jese, Benzema and Modric on the scoresheet, Real Madrid (1.09) easily defeated Getafe 3-0 at the Alfonso Perez last weekend. Los Blancos remain level with Atletico and Barcelona on 60 points at the top of the table.

Elche (34.0) drew 0-0 at home to Osasuna in round 24’s Friday evening fixture. It wasn’t as boring as the scoreline suggests, but there’s little to write about bar a missed Elche pen.

In conclusion, Ronaldo and Modric miss out through suspension, but Real should have no problems putting Elche to bed, and they’ll want to do it quickly with a UEFA Champions league trip to Schalke on the horizon.

Sadly, Real Madrid to score before 30 minutes is too short to back at 1.5, while over 1.5 first half goals is only 1.7, but Ancelotti’s boys have very consistent in winning to nil at the Bernabeu, and Elche don’t offer much of a threat going forward, so we’ll take that.

After all, although Real Madrid should win 3 or 4-0 against Elche, we know that Los Blancos are happy to win 1 or 2-0 against teams like Granada and Osasuna when they’ve had fixture pileups in the past – and neither of those two games saw two goals in the first half. All in all, to win to nil is better value compared to over 1.5 first half goals.

Recommendation: Real Madrid to win to nil (1.8)

Charles

Celta Vigo v Getafe

I’m sure you’ve all heard about the tear gas canister that was thrown onto Villarreal’s El Madrigal pitch with Celta (1.85) leading 1-0 and a few minutes to play last weekend, so I’ll just say well done to Enrique and charges for eventually winning 2-0. Celta now reside in a respectable 11th position.

Getafe (5.2), who will likely dispense of their coach, Luis Garcia, soon if results don’t improve, lost 3-0 at home to Real Madrid last weekend – a result that leaves them just four points above the relegation places.

In conclusion, Celta are in great form, winning three and drawing one of their last four fixtures, while Getafe have lost three out of their last four and haven’t even won a game in 2014.

I’m not sure that their price is right at 1.85, but I can’t see a sensible choice other than a Celta win here. Indeed, if the pre-mentioned Garcia is soon to be sacked, then really we should oppose the Azulones until he is.

Recommendation: Celta (1.85)

Prieto

Real Sociedad v Barcelona

La Real took an early lead through Carlos Vela and rode their luck at times, but ultimately won 1-0 away to Malaga in the round 24 Monday evening fixture. Sixth placed Real Sociedad (8.5) are now level on points with fifth placed Villarreal and four behind fourth placed Athletic Bilbao.

Barcelona (1.4), as expected, put Rayo to the sword last weekend, winning 6-0. Messi scored a brace and is now level with Raul on the all-time La Liga scorers list. Neymar, back from injury, added the sixth and final goal after stunning run and finish.

In conclusion, much like their inept, overly defensive Champions League campaign, La Real stood off and admired Barca last time these two met at San Sebastian in the Copa del Rey a week and a half ago, and they really should have lost about 4-1, but the Basque’s, through a Griezmann goal, drew 1-1.

Now, I’d like to back Barca on a minus handicap because they were vastly superior to La Real in the cup tie mentioned above and didn’t actually have to win that game since they had a 2-0 lead from the first leg, but then Barca played Man City in Manchester in the UEFA Champions League midweek and San Sebastian has not been a happy hunting ground for the Catalans in recent years, with two losses and two draws from their last four trips there.

Indeed, Real Sociedad twice covered their Asian handicap mark in both cup ties with Barca, so why not again when the Catalans have played an extra game midweek?

Recommendation: Real Sociedad + 1.5 Asian handicap (1.91)

duda

Almeria v Malaga

Almeria (2.5) lost 1-0 away to Levante last weekend, a week after they’d beaten Atletico Madrid at home! Almeria are in 15th place in the standings, four points off the drop zone.

Malaga (3.0), despite dominating the second half, struggled to create clear cut chances at home to Real Sociedad, losing 1-0 at La Rosaleda in the Monday night fixture. Schuster’s boys are now in 17th position, three points 18th placed Valladolid.

In conclusion, Almeria will want at least a point to remain above Malaga, while Malaga really need to win. I would suggest that Malaga are the better team, so we’ll give them the nod with a handicap start.

Recommendation: Malaga + 0.25 Asian handicap (1.78)

Rayo Vallecano v Sevilla

Rayo (3.5) were destroyed 6-0 by Barca at Camp Nou last weekend, but we knew that their wide-open style of football was always going to lead to a similar scoreline.

In a game which goals were expected, Sevilla (2.25) drew 0-0 at home to Valencia in round 24. Rakitic – who has failed to convert as many as he’s scored from the spot this season – even missed a penalty. Emery’s boy’s also had a one man advantage for a large part of the second half.

As for this weekend’s game, well, Rayo were impressive in thrashing Malaga 4-1 in their last home game, while Sevilla lost 3-2 to Malaga in their last road game and have only won one game in 2014.

Now, Sevilla have had to play an extra game in the Europa league midweek and Rayo drew with Sevilla at Vallecas last season, so we could give Rayo a + 0.5 handicap start at 1.75, but five out of the last six clashes between these two have seen three goals or more and with BTTS too short at 1.6, I opt for over 2.5 goals instead.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.73)

Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao

Not surprisingly, and despite having a one man advantage in the final ten minutes, bottom club Betis (3.13) lost 1-0 away to Granada in the noon Sunday kick-off slot last weekend.

Athletic (2.4), surprisingly, lost their unbeaten La Liga record at the new San Mames after a Sergio Garcia inspired Espanyol won 2-1 in round 24.

Now, Betis did beat Athletic here in the cup earlier this season, but the Basques spurned a plethora of chances, before easily winning the second leg in Bilbao.

Also, with Betis – albeit at home – having played Rubin Kazan in the Europa League on Thursday evening, I’ve got to give Athletic the nod on a draw no bet (the same thing as 0 Asian handicap) basis.

Finally, although fifth placed Villarreal also lost weekend, sixth placed Real Sociedad won to draw level with Villarreal on points, so an Athletic side with a bad taste in the mouth after last week’s defeat will surely see a game against Betis as one they have to win.

Recommendation: Athletic 0 Asian handicap (1.78)

Valencia v Granada

Los Che’s improved form continued as they managed to draw 0-0 away to Sevilla in round 24 – a result that kept them in 7th place. Valencia (1.5) were even reduced to ten men in the second half, so big credit to them for getting a point,

In a pitifully dire game, Granada (7.5) defeated Betis 1-0 in the noon Sunday fixture last weekend. Granada are now in 12th position, six points clear of the relegation places.

In conclusion, I want to back Valencia -1 AH here, but Los Che have played the extra game midweek when they faced Dynamo Kiev, so it’s made me think twice.

However, we should still expect an in-form Valencia that has beaten Granada five times in a row to win once more, so I’ll risk a possible push with the minus one.

Finally, I have a feeling that under 2.5 goals (2.1) will be a winner in this game, as Granada only lost 2-0 to Real Madrid at the Bernabeu recently, some of Valencia’s players will be tired from the Europa League and this fixture has been contained less than three goals in four out of five head to head matches.

Recommendation: Valencia – 1 Asian handicap (1.83)

Osasuna v Atletico Madrid

In a half decent contest, Osasuna (8.0) drew 0-0 away to Elche last Friday evening. With this draw, Osasuna remain above Elche in 13th place with 26 points.

Atletico (1.5), through Garcia, Costa and Godin goals, easily defeated Valladolid 3-0 at the Vicente Calderon in their round 23 fixture. Atletico are still level on points with Barcelona and Real Madrid at the top of the table.

In conclusion, I believe that there are two suitable betting angles for this match:

Firstly, Atletico had to play AC in Milan midweek, and a league away game at Osasuna just a few days later is one of the worst fixtures Los Colchoneros could have been dealt.

Indeed, Osasuna held both Real Madrid and Barcelona to draws in Pamplona earlier this season, so why not an Atletico side that has played an extra game midweek?

Betting wise, as Atleti would be perfectly happy to win 1-0 in such a scenario, Osasuna + 1.25 Asian handicap looks like it could be the bet at 184.

The other finalist in the bet selection process is under 2.5 goals at a 1.91 price. Now, Osasuna generally struggle to score goals, while Atletico don’t concede many or often win big on the road. As mentioned above, Atletico – like they did away to Malaga after their last UEFA Champions League game – will take a 1-0 win.

I like both angles, but under 2.5 gets the nod because of Ateti’s defence and need to win if they are to remain in the title race. I wouldn’t however, blame you for backing the other option, or indeed both!

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals (1.91)

bruno

Espanyol v Villarreal

Somewhat surprisingly, Espanyol (2.7) dealt Athletic Bilbao their first ever La Liga loss at the new San Mames stadium last weekend, with Sergio Garcia and Diego Colotto each netting in the 2-1 victory.

Villarreal (2.88), meanwhile, lost 2-0 at home to Celta Vigo – a shocking result in most punters eyes. The Yellow Submarines remain in fifth place, four points behind Athletic Bilbao.

In conclusion, Espanyol’s seasonal objective is always just to avoid being relegated – and they’re currently 11 points clear of 18th placed Valladolid – while Villarreal are chasing a European place – in particular a Champions League slot.

Now, Villarreal will expect fourth placed Athletic Bilbao to at least draw away to Betis and, as such, Marcelino’s charges will need to do the same or better in order to keep pace with the Basques.

Recommendation: Villarreal + 0.25 Asian handicap (1.8)