Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews

Sporting Gijon v Villarreal: 12:00 – Live on Sky Sports 5

They scored a lovely free-kick with the last kick of the game, but Sporting ultimately lost 2-1 away to Espanyol last weekend to show that their defeat of Osasuna was largely because the Pamplona-based side are the worst team in the Spanish top-flight.

The Yellow Submarines of Villarreal, on the other hand, stunningly destroyed Atletico Madrid 3-0 at El Madrigal in the Monday night fixture. It’s important to say that Atletico played very poorly, but what a result for Villarreal!

With regards to this weekend’s fixture, Villarreal have only won one league away game this season – defeating Malaga 2-0 at La Rosaleda – with four games drawn and two lost, so it’s only prudent to have the draw onside, at least for cover.

Sadly, at a 4/7 price, Villarreal draw no bet is too short priced to be my pick, while you can’t back Sporting + 0.5 since they’ve lost five or their last six competitive games and lie second bottom in the La Liga Primera standings.

Goals wise, Sporting’s last six games have seen three or more goals in each, with one being in the cup, but only three of Villarreal’s last six competitive contests have passed the same mark.

So, not an ideal mix for goals on both sides, but over 2 goal line is the best I can come up with at a 1.75 price if you want a bet.

Recommendation: Over 2 goal line (3/4)

Atletico Madrid v Las Palmas: Not televised in the UK

Shockingly, Diego Simeone’s Los Colchoneros were beaten 3-0 away to Villarreal last weekend, which makes them sixth in the La Liga Primera standings. Worse still, Atleti’s goalkeeper, Oblak, was injured in the game and will be out of action for 3-4 months.

Las Palmas, for their part, drew 1-1 at home to Leganes last weekend, leading for 75 minutes before conceding a penalty. In all competitions, it was their third score draw in a row.

In conclusion, either the away team on a handicap start basis or over goals look like the best options to choose from as Atleti are not in great form, their second-choice keeper, Moya, is nowhere near as good as Oblak and Las Palmas tend to score and concede in every game.

However, the handicap is Las Palmas + 1.5 at evens, and I was excepting/hoping for + 2, while over 2.5 goals is a too short to back 8/13. Both teams to score, on the other hand, is priced at 11/10.

The problem is that in Atleti’s last six competitive games, both teams haven’t scored once! Specifically at the Vicente Calderon, mind, both teams have scored in 3/6 with Rostov, Malaga and Granada all getting on the scoresheet.

Las Palmas have scored and conceded away to Valencia, Villarreal, Real Sociedad and Sevilla, whilst they did the same at home to Real Madrid, so I’ll take a leap of faith with BTTS.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (11/10)

Granada v Real Sociedad: 17:30 – Live on Sky Sports 5

They benefitted from two ruled out Malaga goals and really should have lost on the balance of play, but Granada drew 1-1 away to the Anchovies to make it three competitive games without defeat.

The, apart from losing 5-1 away to Deportivo, in-form Real Sociedad got back to winning ways by defeating relegation-threatened Valencia 3-2 at San Sebastian last weekend.

In conclusion, after defeating Sevilla 2-1 to earn their first league win of the season, Granada have form and confidence on their side. It’s largely the same for Real Sociedad too, but that 5-1 defeat at the Riazor, coupled with both teams having scored in five of the last six competitive games each has played, makes goals look like the best option.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (5/6)

Sevilla v Malaga: 19:45 – Live on Sky Sports 5

Very impressively with second-half sub Vicente Iborra scoring a hat-trick, Sevilla defeated Celta 3-0 in Vigo last weekend and currently occupy third place in the La Liga standings.

Malaga, meanwhile, had two goals ruled out – one in injury time – and can consider themselves very unlucky not to have beaten Granada at La Rosaleda last weekend.

All in all, I want to recommend a home win as Sevilla have won every league game they’ve played at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan besides against Barca, but Sevilla’s 1/2 price doesn’t give enough respect to Malaga.

Instead, with five of the last six Malaga La Liga games seeing both teams score and the same mark applying to Sevilla’s recent league exploits, BTTS and Sevilla to win looks like the best bet as BTTS is only priced around 8/11 as a single and over 2.5 goals is 7/10 at best.

Recommendation: Sevilla to win and both teams to score (21/10)

Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews

Osasuna v Barcelona: 12:00 – live on Sky Sports 5

Since appointing Joaquin Caparros, Osasuna have lost four games in a row, scoring just one goal and conceding nine. The fact that they managed a goal in their last game potentially ruins a Barca to win to nil bet (evens), or BTTS No, but if Osasuna are to get something out of this games it seems most likely to be via a 0-0 scoreline, which they achieved last time they hosted Barca.

Barca, of course, played an extra game midweek – in the UCL – and their coach, Luis Enrique, may well field a weakened team in Pamplona this weekend as a consequence.

All in all, then, there’s an outside chance of a 0-0, but more than likely Barcelona will win comfortably. Given that the regular Asian line is Barca – 2, meaning that they’d have to win by three goals for the bet to yield profit, and factoring in that Barca have conceded in three of their last four competitive games, the Catalan side to score three or more is the pick.

However, wait and see how strong a team Enrique puts out before betting and don’t take less than 8/11. You can always just bet in-play, judge how likely Barca look to score a few and chance waiting for a better price.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 Barcelona team goals (3/4)

Spare change cover bet: 0-0 correct score (28/1)

Real Sociedad v Valencia: 15:15

Unlucky not beat Barca after having what would have been a winning goal wrongly ruled out, Real Sociedad were shockingly beaten 5-1 away to Deportivo in their next and most recent fixture.

Valencia, meanwhile, conceded a later leveller to draw 2-2 at home to Malaga last Sunday evening to make it six league games without a win. On a positive note, Los Che did win 3-1 away to Leganes in the cup a few days before hosting Malaga.

However, the only conclusion that can be drawn in the match winner or handicap markets is that you simply cannot justify backing Valencia to win at San Sebastian this weekend.

On the other hand, you can justify backing Los Che to score, and certainly their opponents too as they’ve conceded in every La Liga game so far this season, scoring at least once in 10/12.

Indeed, in all competitions, both teams to score (best priced at 7/10) has occurred in La Real’s last four games, so with the Basque side’s impressive record of having won four of their last six matches against Valencia, and Los Che having conceded two or more goals in four of their last six La Liga matches, Real Sociedad team goals over 1.5 and BTTS and a home win are the bets to take.

Recommendation: Over 1.5 Real Sociedad team goals (10/11)

Worth a smaller punt: BTTS and Real Sociedad to win (11/4)

Las Palmas v Leganes: 17:30 – live on Sky Sports 4

Canary side Las Palmas came from a goal down to draw 1-1 away to Alaves last weekend, while Leganes recovered from a 3-1 midweek home defeat to Valencia in the Copa del Rey by holding an out of form Villarreal side to a 0-0 draw in Madrid.

Interestingly, Las Palmas haven’t lost at home this season, winning four and drawing three, so the ideal wager would be Las Palmas drawn no bet (Asian line 0). However, that’s way too short to back at 1/3 and understandably so.

Leganes, for their part, have an interesting away record with three wins and four losses from seven La Liga games. So, unlike Las Palmas’ home record, zero draws.

All in all, it’s not a five-star bet by any means, but Leganes have lost their last three road games and since they don’t do draws on their travels and Las Palmas are undefeated at home, a victory for Vinny Samways’ old side is the pick.

Recommendation: Las Palmas (5/6)

Real Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna: 19:45 – live on Sky Sports 3

La Liga leaders Real Madrid conceded a late equaliser to draw 2-2 with Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League midweek, but then they’d been the beneficiaries of a late goal only days earlier when Sergio Ramos’ header secured a draw at Camp Nou in the Clasico.

Deportivo, meanwhile, surprisingly thrashed in-form Real Sociedad 5-1 at the Riazor in the Monday evening La Liga fixture. Notably, the also in-form Florin Andone bagged a brace to make it five goals in his last four La Liga games.

In conclusion, Real Madrid tend to thrash Deportivo and this weekend should be no different, but with potentially tired legs on show, both teams scoring and conceding in five of their last six competitive games, and a – 2.75 Asian handicap relying on a four-goal win for Los Blancos to ensure a full payout, Real Madrid to win and both teams to score is my fancy.

Finally, if you like a big-priced anytine scorer, Andone is best priced at 9/2 and well worth a pop given his form.

Recommendation: BTTS and Real Madrid to win (11/8)

Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews – Round 31

Atletico v Betis

After losing 2-1 away to Sporting Gijon last time out, Simeone’s Atleti have pretty much conceded their La Liga title hopes for the season and will have one eye on their upcoming Champions league match with Barca at Camp Nou.

So, Atleti can take it easy v Betis in La Liga, while Barca can hardly do the same at home to Real Madrid in the Clasico. Los Colchoneros will also miss their regular centre-back pairing of Godin and Gimenez.

Betis + 1.5 handicap start then? Maybe, but so long as he starts the match (check before you bet) the easiest trend to follow is Griezmann anytime scorer as the Frenchman has netted in five straight La Liga games.

Recommendation: Griezmann anytime scorer at 4/5

Las Palmas v Valencia

Gary Neville’s ill-fated spell as Valencia coach was brought to an end midweek, and Pako Ayestaran takes the reins until the end of the season (in theory). Now, while Rafa Benitez’s old assistant had already been back with Los Che in his old role for a few weeks, he’s still a new coach and, as such, I wouldn’t bet against him and his team.

The bad news for Pako on his debit is that Las Palmas are in good form, defeating both Villarreal and Real Sociedad away and only losing tight home games to Barcelona and Real Madrid in their last six fixtures on the island.

In conclusion, the angles are opposing Las Palmas or accounting for their good form and perhaps an increased effort from the Che players with GNev gone, BTTS (4/5). For my money, it’s a no bet.

Barcelona v Real Madrid

Ok, on current from, Barcelona should beat Real Madrid and they likely will, but Los Blancos will be out for revenge after their 4-0 home loss in the last Clasico and 8/13 isn’t an appealing price for the Catalan side.

Now, the long BTTS streak (18+ in a row) was broken in the last Clasico and although it should, in theory, be harder for Real Madrid to score at Camp Nou than at the Bernabeu, I have a feeling that Zidane’s boys will get on the scoresheet.

As such, and particularly since I lost a max bet on over 2.5 goals & BTTS as one bet in the last Clasico, over 2.5 goals & BTTS as one bet is what I’d like to bet on, looking for revenge, but it’s a mere 8/13 price-wise, so forget that.

In conclusion, a Barca win and both teams to score is a bet I expect to win, but its 6/4 price is shorter than expected and I’ve also opted for over 3.5 match goals – at a fairer price – as a slight preference.

Recommendation: Over 3.5 goals at 9/10

Worth a punt: Barca win & BTTS at 6/4

Celta v Deportivo

The Galician derby and one that would have been a lot easier to pick had Deportivo not won their first game of 2016 last time out! Indeed, winning 2-0 away to Valencia last weekend and picking up other impressive wins along the way, Celta are in great form.

So, it’s great form vs could be starting a winning streak now and, as such, a no bet, a brave Depor + 0.5, BTTS or over 2.5 goals are the choices.

I’m not brave enough to take the Depor + 0.5, and since Celta have kept a few clean sheets recently, will chance my luck on over 2.5 goals.

Worth a punt: Over 2.5 goals at 1.85